Kari Lake’s Chances of Beating Ruben Gallego: Recent Polls

Former TV presenter Kari Lake has narrowed the gap against Democratic Congressman Ruben Gallego in the Senate seat race of swing state Arizona, according to polls.
Recent averages from FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics show Gallego maintaining a narrow lead, while Lake has caught up in recent weeks, and even taken the lead in some polls.
According to FiveThirtyEight’s polling averages, Gallego leads Lake by 4.6 points (49.3 percent to 44.7 percent). RealClearPolitics shows a similar spread, with Gallego up by 4 points (49.4 percent to 45.4 percent).
According to both of those polling aggregators, Gallego has led Lake on average since April.
However, recent individual polls have shown some fluctuation, suggesting an unpredictable electorate as Arizona voters prepare to cast their ballots.
One, by Atlas Intel, conducted between November 1 and 2, showed Lake ahead by 1.7 points (49.1 percent for Lake, 47.4 percent for Gallego). The same polling firm recorded Lake ahead by 0.7 points (48.6 to 47.9) for a poll conducted on October 30 and 31.
Apart from two other polls last week, one by DataOrbital where Lake led by 0.7 percent, and one released by OneMessage, where the candidates were tied, Gallego has led every poll in the state since July.
More in line with the polling average, the latest New York Times/Siena College poll conducted from October 25 to November 2 and released on Sunday, surveyed 1,025 likely Arizona voters, with 50 percent backing Gallego and 45 percent supporting Lake, giving Gallego a 5-point advantage.
Despite Lake’s leads in some recent polls, betting odds favor Gallego. According to betting exchange Polymarket, Gallego has an 78 percent chance of winning, compared to Lake’s 24 percent. This reflects the betting community’s assessment that Gallego’s consistent lead in the polls may translate into a win come Election Day.
Newsweek has contacted the campaigns of both candidates via email for comment.
Lake shot to national prominence as a figure in former president Donald Trump’s MAGA movement after stepping down as a news anchor to run for Arizona governor in 2021. She ran a campaign focused on securing the U.S.-Mexico border, protecting gun rights, and protesting COVID-19 lockdowns, “cancel culture” and “woke” school curriculums.
She lost the election to Katie Hobbs by just over 17,000 votes, but refused to concede because she believed the election was unfair.
Lake’s 2022 loss has continued to follow her into her 2024 Senate campaign. This year she has seen multiple legal setbacks, including in March, admitting that she defamed a fellow Republican by accusing him of a plot to rig the 2022 gubernatorial election, and in June losing her sixth appeal contesting the results of that same election.
In January, Lake’s Senate campaign was revealed to be divisive among Arizona Republicans, when the state’s party chair resigned after an audio recording surfaced in which he purportedly offered Lake money in exchange for her staying out of politics for two years.
Gallego is the Representative for a Congressional district in the Phoenix area, a seat he has held since 2015.
Before politics he served in the U.S. Marines during the invasion of Iraq. He is of Latino descent, and was born and raised in Illinois, and studied at Harvard University.
He launched his Senate campaign in January 2024 after incumbent Kyrsten Sinema left the Democratic Party to become an independent the month prior.